ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF THE LEE-CARTER MODEL IN MODELLING MORTALITY DATA WITH VARYING bx PARAMETER

mortality forecasting based on lee-carter model

over the past decades a number of approaches have been applied for forecasting mortality. in 1992, a new method for long-run forecast of the level and age pattern of mortality was published by lee and carter. this method was welcomed by many authors so it was extended through a wider class of generalized, parametric and nonlinear model. this model represents one of the most influential recent d...

Understanding the Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting Method

We demonstrate here several previously unrecognized or insufficiently appreciated properties of the Lee-Carter mortality forecasting approach, a method used widely in both the academic literature and practical applications. We show that this model is a special case of a considerably simpler, and less often biased, random walk with drift model, and prove that the age profile forecast from both a...

Testing for a unit root in Lee-Carter mortality model

Xuan Leng1 and Liang Peng2 Abstract. Motivated by a recent discovery that the two-step inference for Lee-Carter mortality model is inconsistent when the mortality index does not follow from a nearly integrated AR(1) process, we propose a test for unit root in a Lee-Carter model with an AR(2) process for the mortality index. Although testing for a unit root has been studied extensively in econom...

a study on insurer solvency by panel data model: the case of iranian insurance market

the aim of this thesis is an approach for assessing insurer’s solvency for iranian insurance companies. we use of economic data with both time series and cross-sectional variation, thus by using the panel data model will survey the insurer solvency.

Using the Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data